some time the cold mass that driven by Siberia high pressure to Arab Peninsula ,good for south east area.
the Arab peninsula will see a very clod wave and Freezing temperature because of this mass while interacting with thermal extending of red sea trough with south west Streams in mid and high level of troposphere in south east region!!
that caused some times Instability condition.
attached with thunder shower.
south west Streams..and good moister in 850 Mb and not bad for 700mb..
also i found a north east-west humid wind toward mountain of UAE and Oman..
(could be instable because of red see trough and cold air passing above warm water of gulf)
i think that enough for some thunder shower..
and i think we will see some local heavy Cloud over Arab Gulf and East of Qatar.
this condition will be very Explicit during cold wave.
so i think some Isolated T-S will be form next two days there inshaallah.
to the maps for GFS06z ..today:
thanks for reading ..
JordanWeather Forecaster for Arab Weather.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Cold wave caused by a Siberian high pressure (from Tuesday until Saturday) will extending 'strongly' in north of Peninsula and will cause a very low temperature in the morning and may cause a frost on many areas .
the cold wave will be strongest in Thursday.
the temperature will drop less than (0 Centigrade in the morning ) but will be more than (15C) in some area in the noon hours.. this is a normal phenomenon because of very dry condition there.(less than 20% humidity,very dry sand)
the most area will be affect from this wave :north Saudi , some parts of the center of Saudi Arabia and west of Kuwait .
some parts of south east of Peninsula will see some instability condition(especially oman)
because of cold trough that centralization in iran and Conjugation with extension of red sea trough)
but the west of Saudi Arabia will not affect by this hard wave because of the ridge and normal ' mini ' red sea trough affect..(see image above, morning of Thursday 3z 18/12/2008 GFS12z )
in the medium range forecast i see a possible Instability condition there especially from many active storm will affect east Mediterranean with cold masses that(some of these) deeper in the north west of Saudi Arabia (typical area) and very active subtropical jet stream (Meridional Flow) especially the last 5 days of December.
are we going to see another instability condition's like 2001!!